Economic Sign? Tooth Fairy Is Paying More
Average Payout per Baby Tooth Is on the Rise
By Jennifer Warner
Feb. 2, 2010—Even the tooth fairy is feeling a bit more flush these days, a sign that perhaps the worst of the recession is over.
A new poll shows the average tooth fairy dividend is up 13% from last year, from $1.88 to $2.13 per tooth nationwide…....
....
“For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 23 percent during the same time period. The Tooth Fairy may be another indicator that the economy is starting to recover.”
Although I am reading many reports that are showing better than expected recovery (Q4 Advance GDP, most recent ISM manufacturing, consumer confidence)...the one “indicator” I really like is the skirt length indicator!
Pretty much any goofy thing you can think of can be spun into a “market indicator”.
Facotry orders up today…unfortunately, so were initial jobless claims…tomorrow January unemployement numbers are released. Estimates are all over the place…again
Retailers See Positive Signs In Store Sales
by THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
February 4, 2010
Stores received a pleasant surprise in January as shoppers bought a little more clothing at mall stores, delivering solid gains for many retailers and providing more hope that a spending recovery that started late last year is being sustained.
Still, the sales reports, released Thursday, showed two kinds of consumers - ordinary folks who are buying a little more but still focused on bargains, and the affluent who are spending more freely on Gucci and other luxury brands as they feel encouraged by their rebounding stock portfolios. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=123372585&ft=1&f=1001
March. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. Other dangerous months are July, January, September, April, November, May, October, June, December, August and February.
Stocks surged Tuesday, lifted by gains in basic materials and energy companies, and by reports that a rescue plan is in the works for debt-wracked Greece.
The S&P 500 Index ($INX) was rising 12 points, or 1.2%, to 1,069. The Dow ($INDU) was gaining 144 points, 1.5%, to 10,052. The Nasdaq ($COMPX) was up 23 points, 1.1%, to 2,149.
Today starts the New Lunar Year- the Metal Tiger: its a tricky year. For business the outlook is:
Money boost
Ben Bernanke and other financial prognosticators already said last year that the recession is over. Adding to those voices are fortunetellers who say “optimism and a speculative mentality” will boost the stock market a bit. Looking to invest? In reading the delicate and ever-shifting balance among the five elements that comprise the universe, a Metal Tiger Year should result in a pickup in businesses involved in energy, construction, steel, banking, machinery, high tech, and cars.
Also, as a general rule of thumb, the second year of a bull run produces vrey good returns…though not as good as the first.
Since both teams in the Super Bowl were “old NFL”...that predictor points up for the year.
On the flip side the January indicator, points towards a lower close…although this indicator is (like most) unreliable. In fact it was wrong last year.
Corporate profits are expected to rise this year…that would be the best indicator to me. If companies make more, then their stocks should be worth more.
Lots of stuff for us to get thru though…housing still iffy…Fed is starting to removing QE…unemployment is expected to be sticky…not an easy ride back to normal for sure.
US set to make 8 BILLION off Citi deal
Among the banks that rule Wall Street, Citigroup got a bailout that was bigger than the rest. Now the company is about to pay a king’s ransom for its federal rescue.
The Obama administration is making final preparations to sell its stake in the New York bank, according to industry and federal sources.
At today’s prices, the sale would net more than $8 billion, by far the largest profit returned from any firm that accepted bailout funds and the transaction would be the second-largest stock sale in history.
I would say this is a hopeful sign as well as the ‘new’help for homes program. The old one wasnt very successful in the number it saved.
There are two kinds of recessions: the one that economists measure, and the one that ordinary people feel.
The official recession is over. That’s because the economy is growing again after a sharp decline, with GDP back to the levels of mid-2008. For people who have kept their jobs, suffered no loss of income and enjoyed a rebound in their investments thanks to the year-long stock market rally, things are pretty good.
1. While most agree the recession has likely ended, teh NBER is the official record keeper of such things and they have not declared the end to the recession.
2. This the way the cycle goes…no amount of media hand wringing will change that. After the recession of the early 80s it took 5 years for unemployment to return to more normal levels. A $13 trillion dollar economy just doesn’t turn off and on like a light switch.
3. The authors comment about the typical downpayment now being 30% for well qualified buyers is just bunk. 3% still gets you and FHA(?) loan. I have a friend getting one right now. The difference bettwen now and 4 years ago is that you must have the income to pay back the loan….
4. The article states that because of the recession people need to save more for retirement…um…they needed to save more before the recession too. This isn’t a new phenomena brought about by the recession…it is a fact that most Americans are woefully unprepared for retirement.
5. The part about consumer and business confidence…was true…6-9 months ago. The most recent readings on consumer and business/CEo confidence are showing improvement. To say that consumer confidence is only modest improvement is not correct (although there are many consumer confidence readings…so I will cu the author some slack here since I don’t know to which survey he may be referring).
6. Jobs do need to return. That’s an easy one…but also not a light switch. What the author fails to mention is that 3 of the last 5 months (Nov, Feb and March) have had positve job reports…so the trend is going in the right direction.
